← CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 2
at CoreTCG Abyssal Heaven Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 14.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Byakko | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.1 |
| Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scorching Imperilment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Barter Herbs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glowering Conflagration | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kindling Flare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Absolving Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |